Oregon Presidential Election 2016 Contributions Analysis

In this dataset there are 164726 observations and 18 variables. It contains data on the donations in Oregon for the 2016 presidential election. This report will explore this data.

Oregon is a strongly leaning Democratic state and this probably effected the contributions that were received by the candidates. Bernie also won the Democratic primaries here. This could explain why he had the most contributions here.

I think it’s interesting to note that teachers seem to be the profession that donates the most often. I find that a very strange phenomenon especially since teachers often complain about not having enough pay.

It’s also interesting to note that education employers are very frequent on the employers donation. I think if people work in the private sector they may be less willing to say who they work for. Education has nearly always leaned democratic and combining that with being in Oregon I would guess there is no shame in sharing this information.

It also appears that this data set could be cleaned more in the occupations and employers data variables. I’m not sure how this information was gathered but this is definitely human entered data. Going through the data manually I realize now why teacher probably has more donations than others: It’s just a common profession that doesn’t have many other ways to say what it is. Nurses for example are put in as RN, Registered Nurse, Nurse Practitioner, or Nurse. Not employed, retired are also very simple catch all bins that are all represented the same way.

Lastly, we see when the contributions are made. They seem to fall into a bimodal distribution and it appears to be from the primaries vs the general election. There are spikes here and there and I would imagine that they could be connected to political events that happened. It will be interesting to see how this information breaks down with other variables, especially by candidate.

I’ve decided to focus my analysis on just 5 candidates. Trump, Cruz, Carson, Hillary and Sanders since other candidates didn’t get very many contributions.

Sanders won the Democratic primaries here in Oregon. He also had the highest amount of money in contributions by the end of the primaries. The general election saw a huge spike in Trump and Clintons donations in both number and amount. It’s interesting to note that at one point Clinton, Carson, and Cruz were all neck and neck in the number of donations. However, Clinton had the big donors and was clearly ahead in the amount of $ raised.

Statistics on Contribution Amounts for Candidates
Statistics on the amount of cash contributed. The Min is negative because of refunds issued.

Donald J. Trump:

Min. -1614.00
1st Qu. 28.00
Median 49.15
Mean 126.40
3rd Qu. 104.00
Max. 2700.00
Total Donations: 8926

Ted Cruz:

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## -5400.0 25.0 40.0 65.8 90.0 10800.0
## Total Donations: 8441
Hillary Clinton:

Min. -2700.00
1st Qu. 10.00
Median 25.00
Mean 71.64
3rd Qu. 50.00
Max. 5000.00
Total Donations: 66823

Bernie Sanders:

Min. -3872.00
1st Qu. 10.00
Median 27.00
Mean 40.98
3rd Qu. 50.00
Max. 7300.00
Total Donations: 72869

Ben Carson:

Min. -13000.00
1st Qu. 25.00
Median 50.00
Mean 81.49
3rd Qu. 100.00
Max. 10000.00
Total Donations: 4603

Democrats:

Min. -3872.00
1st Qu. 10.00
Median 25.00
Mean 55.65
3rd Qu. 50.00
Max. 7300.00
Total Donations: 139692

Republicans:

Min. -13000.00
1st Qu. 25.00
Median 50.00
Mean 93.69
3rd Qu. 100.00
Max. 10800.00
Total Donations: 21970

Here is a boxplot that shows much of these statistics as well as some more of the variation.

It’s interesting to note that Trump got the biggest average donations even though he didn’t get very many donations for a general election candidate. Also, republicans got higher average donations than democrats but democrats got significantly more donations. This made me wonder, how many people are contributing to the same candidate multiple times? Do democrats or republicans have a higher average # of times donated?

Statistics on the Number of Times a Specific Person Donates to a Particular Candidate
Sanders:
Min. 1.000
1st Qu. 2.000
Median 5.000
Mean 8.637
3rd Qu. 10.000
Max. 167.000

Clinton:
Min. 1.000
1st Qu. 1.000
Median 3.000
Mean 7.482
3rd Qu. 8.000
Max. 1667.000

Carson:
Min. 1.000
1st Qu. 1.000
Median 3.000
Mean 4.334
3rd Qu. 5.000
Max. 44.000

Trump:
Min. 1.000
1st Qu. 1.000
Median 1.000
Mean 1.298
3rd Qu. 1.000
Max. 17.000

Cruz:
Min. 1.000
1st Qu. 1.000
Median 3.000
Mean 5.631
3rd Qu. 7.000
Max. 105.000

Although republicans make bigger average donations. Democrats donate more often. So the question remains, do democrat or republican supporters donate more overall to thier candidate?

It’s interesting to note that someone made 1667 Donations to Clinton.

I have a theory as to why there is such a large difference in the number of contributions between Clinton, Sanders and Trump. In Oregon there is a climate of anti-trump. Social shaming, blantant anti-trump crowds. There is no social reward for going out and donating to the trump campaign. I imagine that some people would go out and donate to Clinton and Sanders as a way to socialize.

I find it incredibly interesting that in Oregon, one of the most progessive liberal states, that there are so many unique individuals who donated to Donald Trump. Also, it’s significant that the amount donated was so much less per individual. Most of his donators only donated one time. Although, when they donated, they donated more than average.

It’s also notable that Clinton is the exact opposite. Her contributors Donated the most per person and also there were the most contributors overall.

Why would someone make 1667 donations? Why are they doing this? Who are these people?

Most of the people who donated over 100 times donated for Clinton. 20 of the 29 people. 7 for Sanders and only 2 people for the only republican candidate, Cruz.

What Kind of People are Contributing to a Particular Candidate?
Since we now realize that some people contribute significantly more times to the same candidate based on the candidate, I will be sorting out the number of times and counting each person once regardless of how many times they contribute. This will give a more accurate picture of how many people support a candidate.

I must say the Not employed people graph speaks for itself.

Trump does well with retired people, homemakers, sales, and managers.

Bernie does well with teachers, The unemployed, artists, and sales.

Clinton does well with teachers, attorneys, homemakers, retired people, managers, students, physicians, and artists.

Where are these people?

It’s important to realize that this graph does not take population into account. It’s only a net aggregate. There are more Trump donators in Portland mostly because Portland’s population is so much higher than other cities in Oregon. From this graph it’s looks like bend and salem are bipartisan cities. Medford would be the most conservative city in Oregon. Hillsboro, Lake Oswego and Beaverton, all suburbs of Portland skew much more conservative than the city itself. Ashlash looks like the most democratic city of Oregon.

Since there isn’t data on population I decided to show this same information as proportions.

I think here the data shows more accurately the percent of support that each city gives to each candidate.

What’s interesting to note with this graph is that clearly retired people REALLY like to contribute to political campaigns. Also, I didn’t think to look at the data where the ‘information requested’ was recorded. I think this shows that people were embarrassed that they wanted to contribute to trump’s campaign and didn’t want to reveal any information. This would mean that the data is skewed to misrepresent trump in the occupation graphs. As many of these people who support trump didn’t report.

It’s amazing the sheer amount of unemployed people that sanders attracted to donate money to him.

It’s also important to note that there are different amounts of each occupation with retired and unemployed being the two highest.

Summary Of People’s Occupations by Proportion

It’s interesting to see occupations that I didn’t think to look at that were actually pretty interesting. Such as realtor and owner. Both are much higher for Trump than the average oregonian. It’s interesting in the sense that Trump is definitely an ‘owner’ and he is in the real estate business which maybe is why realtors can understand him better. I find it very interesting if you look at the pasts of Hillary and the roles she played (Lawyer, Attorney, Homemaker, Social Worker) She did well in them, just as Trump did well with the roles that he has been in.

Reflection

I didn’t realize what I was going to discover when I decided to get into this dataset. I knew immediately when I first saw it that I wanted to figure out how occupations would effect whom they would contribute to. I think the hardest thing to figure out out was the number of times that people were contributing to their candidates. This skewed the first data that I was looking at. It took some time to create graphs that were meaningful and interesting. I’m quite happy with how my analysis turned out and in the future it could be expanded on by looking more into the zip code variable. This would allow a map to be made showing the different counties compared to other variables. Although, I think it is quite well known that the rural counties are more republican than cities but there are some interesting things that could still be looked at. For example, where are the homemakers who support Trump? Do retired people in cities still support Trump more than Clinton? These would be interesting answers. That being said, I think my analysis answered many of the questions that I wanted answered and overall feel more informed about the politcal differences of people in Oregon than before.

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